Will the Scottish team finally break the long-standing losing streak?

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.